Updates on the War (Jan 12 – Jan 15, 2023)

US Government Actions

  • Patriot Training: The US is moving forward with plans to train Ukrainian soldiers on using the Patriot missile system, and may begin training up to 100 of them next week (source: Ukrinform). 
  • US on Tank Movement: While the US still has not personally provided tanks to Ukraine, it supports allies’ plans to do so. Department of Defense Secretary Patrick Ryder stated that other options “remain on the table” (likely in reference to Abrams Tanks) and that the training of Ukrainian forces on Bradley fighting vehicles will begin “soon” (source: Ukrinform). 
  • UK on Tanks: Following deadly strike on Saturday, UK pledges tanks in new military aid package (source: Kyiv Independent).
  • Blinken-Kuleba Talk: Secretary Blinken and Foreign Minister Kuleba spoke by phone again today. Kuleba thanked Blinken for US support and emphasized Ukraine’s need for Western tanks (source: Kuleba on Twitter). 

Defense and Other Arms

  • The Dnipro Attack: The most recent numbers out of Dnipro after the recent January 14 Russian cruise missile strike on an apartment building in Dnipro include at least  25 killed (including 1 child), 73 injured (including 13 children), and 43 people are still reported missing (source: Zelensky on Telegram).
  • Tank Stalemate: While The US, France and Germany jointly announced a huge jump in aid last week, a stalemate has emerged around tanks. Germany has thus far not provided any tanks, reportedly waiting for the United States to send Abrams tanks first. However, they have also said they will not block Poland if they choose to send any Leopard Tanks (source: Kyiv Independent). Finland has also signaled openness to sending some of their Leopard Tanks, though the number would have to limited due to Finland’s proximity to Russia (source: Politico). 
  • On Soledar: Ukrainian drone commander says Russia takes full control over Soledar as fighting continues near western outskirts of destroyed town (source: Kyiv Independent). If victorious, Russia would have a largely Pyrrhic victory, as it has reportedly sacrificed many troops to take it. News sources are similarly unsure of what is going on, with CNN suggesting there is a pullback by Ukraine (source: Reuters). 
  • ISW Updates: According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia’s actions in Soledar likely do not have much bearing on the Bakhmut campaign. They also claim that it has likely been nearly fully captured by Russia (source: ISW). 
  • Update on Foreign Aid: Japan stated today that it will allocate around $95 million to restore critical infrastructure in Ukraine (source: Kyiv Independent). Canada has also agreed to purchase a NASAMS system, though there is no definitive date yet (source: Ukrinform). 

Other Diplomatic Developments

Other

  • Sanctions Evasions, the Riviera Edition: This article tracks real estate companies’ lack of cooperation over sanctions on Russian oligarchs in France. 
  • Europe Holding Strong: While support for Ukraine may be struggling in some areas in the US, a recent poll in Europe found that 74% of respondents still support the EU’s backing of Ukraine (source: Politico). 
  • Navy Veteran Released: A US Navy veteran, Taylor Dudley, has been released from Russian captivity after being held there since April. He had crossed into Kaliningrad from Poland. The US did not exchange anyone for him (source: Politico). 
  • Generator Numbers: Over 300,000 generators were delivered to Ukraine in December, according to deputy head of the President’s Office Kyrylo Tymoshenko (source: Kyiv Independent). 

by Allegra Hill



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